NUCLEAR STABILITY AT LOW NUMBERS

Chinese writings on the workings of nuclear stability, deterrence, and coercion are thin and politicized. Nevertheless, it is possible to glean, from direct and inferential evidence, rather pessimistic conclusions regarding Chinese views of nuclear stability at low numbers. While China has been living with low numbers in its own arsenal for decades, today it views missile defense and advanced conventional weapons as the primary threat to nuclear stability. More generally, China views nuclear stability as wedded to political amity. Because none of these would be directly addressed through further US and Russian arsenal reductions, China is unlikely to view such reductions as particularly stabilizing. While there is little in Chinese writing to suggest lower US and Russian numbers would encourage a “race to parity,” there are grounds to worry about China becoming more assertive as it gains confidence in Beijing's own increasingly secure second-strike forces.     

基于云理论一二元语义的雷达装备保障指挥效能评估模型

针对云重心和云模型评判方法存在的信息丢失、难于评判以及信息扭曲等问题,从确定权重等级、评价集和评价结果3个方面对模型进行了改进和完善．应用二元语义确定指标权重,避免了评价信息的丢失和扭曲,采用综合云的思想确定评价集,充分利用评价者给出的信息,简化相似云的理论来定量衡量评价结果,从而建立了基于云理论一二元语义的雷达装备保障指挥效能评估模型．     

Explaining Lebanese Shii adherence to Hezbollah: alienation,religiosity and welfare provision

Data from a cross-sectional survey of 176 Lebanese Shiis living in Metropolitan Beirut have been used to investigate the relationship between social and religious variables and attitudes toward Lebanon's “Party of God” (Hezbollah). The results indicate that Islamic religiosity, political discontent, and access to social welfare are positively associated with endorsement of the party. The implications of these findings for the party's future in light of recent political developments are discussed.     

The politics of defense revival in Argentina

In marked contrast with previous decades, defense issues in Argentina have started to receive increasing political attention over the last few years. The main goal of this article is to account for this new found interest in defense policy. The article contends that this revival could be accounted for by both the implementation of a neo-developmentalist strategy and a type of control that emphasizes civilian oversight over the armed forces. Both factors have promoted the implementation of policies that favored an increase in the military budget, the reconstruction of the defense industry and the establishment of a new military doctrine. This article evaluates the impact of factors that have not been previously considered by the literature on defense attention in South America.     

一类具有免疫时滞和病毒颗粒的HIV模型的动力学性态分析

考虑感染细胞的治愈和未感染细胞吸收作用的影响,研究一类具有免疫时滞和病毒颗粒的HIV模型,通过分析特征方程研究平衡点的局部稳定性,利用规范型理论和中心流行定理得到确定Hopl分支方向和分支周期解稳定性的计算公式,并通过构造Lyapunov泛函,讨论未感染平衡点的全局稳定性．     

Coping with traps of vulnerability: a review of the impact of post-colonial issues on the independence of South Sudan

In a world virtually free of slavery and colonialism and one mainly driven by the sovereign state rationale, allusion to manifestations or the existence of some form of these phenomena within a state is often received with dumbfounding indifference or denial. However, a form of rule that had continued in South Sudan long after the departure of the British in 1956 was colonial both in its quintessence and flair in that it disenfranchised its citizens and denied them the most basic freedoms, services and development. Under this establishment, resistance against the coercive vision of the state was brutally suppressed for many decades. This state of affairs finally ended in July 2011. Nonetheless, there is a miscellany of unresolved post-colonial issues between the two countries that warrant attention. These include security and the demarcation of borders, the issue of ludicrous transit fees for South Sudan's oil exportation through Sudan, citizenship, external debt repayment, etc. These issues are part of traps inherited from the anti-colonial struggle, which have now supplanted the old ensemble of North–South conflict paroxysm. As a matter of urgency, the two countries will have to wrap up the incomplete process of negotiation on these substantive issues. The talks should be approached with a new mindset based on the new reality of two sovereign states. To the extent that it is widely established that South Sudan and Sudan must coexist peacefully in order to develop into viable entities, such mutual dependency must be based on equality and respect.     

反舰导弹大空域变轨的三维扩展比例导引律

为了使大空域变轨弹道的理论研究更符合反舰导弹的实际运动状态,建立了反舰导弹追踪虚拟目标的三维空间相对运动模型。同时,为了保证反舰导弹大空域变轨弹道的四段弹道平滑过渡,在导引律设计时同时考虑了脱靶量要求和末端落角要求。应用Lyapunov稳定性理论求解出满足要求的三维扩展比例导引律,对大空域变轨弹道的四段弹道设计了相应的过载控制指令,并进行了仿真研究。仿真结果表明:所提出的三维扩展比例导引律可以使反舰导弹顺利完成大空域飞行任务,而且保证了反舰导弹的所有性能指标均满足要求。     

武器装备人机界面操控性评价方法研究

针对武器装备人机界面操控性难以有效评价的问题,提出人机界面操控易用性的评价指标,利用信息距离对易用性进行分析,并建立武器装备人机界面易用性的评估模型,并通过实例进行武器装备易用性评价分析,为武器装备人机界面操控性设计优化及检验标准的制定提供了借鉴。     

The Towton Battle — A Reinterpretation

The paper re-interprets the implement known as the ‘Towton Battle Axe’ allegedly found in the river which borders the Towton Battlefield (1461), Yorkshire, England, and which now resides in Alnwick Castle, Northumberland. The paper provides parallels, in the form of comparisons with other weapons, in order that the Towton implement can be shown to be a modified former halberd dating from the early sixteenth century. It is, therefore, highly unlikely that the implement was used in the famous battle.     

New Light on the Gold Sword of Major George Wilson

This paper provides new information on the gold sword awarded to Major George Wilson, 39th Regiment of Foot, in 1800 and on the retailer and silversmith, who were commissioned to provide the token.